Riding profile

London Centre

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

London Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 56.4%
  • Conservative 23.6%
  • NDP 6.2%
  • Green 2.3%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereLondon Centre 56.4%23.6%6.2%2.3%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +7.3 35.3% −11.7 4.8% +1.4 2.0% +0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% +8.4 32.1% −8.6 10.6% −4.4 2.7% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

London Centre, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Peter Fragiskatos

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
25.5 pts
Turnout
67.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Fragiskatos Elected Liberal 33,999 56.7 Parliamentarian
Stephen Gallant Conservative 18,633 31.1 Financial Services
Dirka Prout NDP 5,790 9.7 Civil Engineer
Mary Ann Hodge Green 878 1.5 Teacher
David Annis PPC 523 0.9 Retired Vice Principal
Bruce Lamb Other 100 0.2 Entrepreneur

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 86.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 13.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46