Riding profile

Middlesex--London

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Middlesex--London: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
94%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 44.0%
  • Liberal 41.8%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereMiddlesex--London 44.0%41.8%3.3%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +8.8 49.1% −7.2 4.8% −1.4 2.0% −0.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +11.9 48.0% −6.2 10.6% −7.3 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Middlesex--London, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 42% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Lianne Rood

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.5 pts
Turnout
73.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lianne Rood Elected Conservative 36,093 51.7 Parliamentarian
Kent Keenan Liberal 29,400 42.1 Retired
Taylor McIntosh NDP 2,888 4.1 Child and Youth Worker
Jim Johnston Green 698 1.0 Professor
Cynthia Workman PPC 577 0.8 Registered Psychotherapist
Shawn Cartlidge Other 191 0.3 Pastor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 90.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 9.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46