Riding profile

Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong: will Liberal lose this seat to Conservative?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.8
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.5%
  • Liberal 37.7%
  • NDP 3.6%
  • PPC 1.9%
  • Green 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereSarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong 45.5%37.7%3.6%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +10.2 49.1% −11.4 4.8% −1.1 1.1% +0.7
National averageCanada 32.1% +13.4 48.0% −10.3 10.6% −7.0 1.0% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Sarnia--Lambton--Bkejwanong, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Marilyn Gladu

Sits with Liberal

Elected as Conservative · floor_crossingon2026-04-08

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
15.2 pts
Turnout
71.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marilyn Gladu Elected Conservative 40,597 53.1 Parliamentarian
George Vandenberg Liberal 28,940 37.9 Licensed Paralegal
Lo-Anne Chan NDP 4,088 5.4 Chef
Brian Everaert PPC 1,136 1.5 Iron Worker
Jacques Y Boudreau Other 990 1.3 Actuary
Mark Lamore Other 437 0.6 Truck Driver
Tony Mitchell Other 201 0.3 Substitute Principal

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 97.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46