Riding profile
Chatham-Kent--Leamington
The question
Chatham-Kent--Leamington: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChatham-Kent--Leamington | 49.8% | 35.6% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 35.3% +14.5 | 49.1% −13.4 | 4.8% −1.5 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +17.7 | 48.0% −12.4 | 10.6% −7.3 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Chatham-Kent--Leamington, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 93% anglophone.
Sitting member
Dave Epp
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Epp Elected | Conservative | 41,612 | 57.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Keith Pickard | Liberal | 25,978 | 35.9 | Business Owner |
| Seamus McInnis Fleming | NDP | 2,943 | 4.1 | Teaching Assistant |
| Trevor Lee | PPC | 1,061 | 1.5 | Transportation and Logistics |
| James Plunkett | Green | 757 | 1.0 | Truck Driver |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.4%
- Anglophone 92.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 7.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46