Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | 49.0% | 34.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.5%+14.5 | 48.3%−13.5 | 5.0%−1.5 | 2.3%+0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+18.6 | 46.8%−11.9 | 11.2%−7.6 | 2.7%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Dave Epp · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 21.5 points, with 67.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 14.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Epp Elected | Conservative | 41,612 | 57.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Keith Pickard | Liberal | 25,978 | 35.7 | Business Owner |
| Seamus McInnis Fleming | NDP | 2,943 | 4.0 | Teaching Assistant |
| Trevor Lee | PPC | 1,061 | 1.5 | Transportation and Logistics |
| James Plunkett | Green | 757 | 1.0 | Truck Driver |
| Other candidates | 448 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Essex Conservative, safe seat
- Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Windsor West Conservative, toss-up
- Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative, safe seat
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated