Riding profile

Chatham-Kent--Leamington

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Chatham-Kent--Leamington: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Chatham-Kent--Leamington, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 32% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Dave Epp

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 52.0%
  • Liberal 32.1%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • PPC 1.8%
  • Green 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereChatham-Kent--Leamington 52.0%32.1%5.0%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +14.5 45.6% −13.6 6.4% −1.4 1.1% +0.8
National averageCanada 34.8% +17.2 41.9% −9.8 14.2% −9.2 1.0% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
21.5 pts
Turnout
67.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dave Epp Elected Conservative 41,612 57.5 Parliamentarian
Keith Pickard Liberal 25,978 35.9 Business Owner
Seamus McInnis Fleming NDP 2,943 4.1 Teaching Assistant
Trevor Lee PPC 1,061 1.5 Transportation and Logistics
James Plunkett Green 757 1.0 Truck Driver

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 92.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 7.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46