Riding profile

Windsor West

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Windsor West: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Windsor West, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for the Liberal Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Harb Gill

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.4
P(close race)
22%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 33.5%
  • Liberal 27.1%
  • NDP 23.8%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • Green 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereWindsor West 33.5%27.1%23.8%1.4%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% −3.9 45.6% −18.6 6.4% +17.4 1.1% +0.3
National averageCanada 34.8% −1.3 41.9% −14.8 14.2% +9.6 1.0% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
8.0 pts
Turnout
58.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Harb Gill Elected Conservative 21,412 39.0 Retired Police Officer
Richard Pollock Liberal 16,986 30.9 Lawyer
Brian Masse NDP 15,256 27.8 Parliamentarian
Jacob Bezaire PPC 553 1.0 Machinist
Louay Ahmad Green 397 0.7 Student
Joseph Markham Other 195 0.4 Registered Nurse
Margaret Villamizar Other 89 0.2 Language Assessor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 78.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 21.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46