Riding profile

Windsor West

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Windsor West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
63%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.3%
  • Liberal 30.7%
  • NDP 22.1%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereWindsor West 31.3%30.7%22.1%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% −3.9 49.1% −18.4 4.8% +17.3 2.0% −0.4
National averageCanada 32.1% −0.8 48.0% −17.3 10.6% +11.5 2.7% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Windsor West, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 31% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Harb Gill

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
8.0 pts
Turnout
58.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Harb Gill Elected Conservative 21,412 39.0 Retired Police Officer
Richard Pollock Liberal 16,986 30.9 Lawyer
Brian Masse NDP 15,256 27.8 Parliamentarian
Jacob Bezaire PPC 553 1.0 Machinist
Louay Ahmad Green 397 0.7 Student
Joseph Markham Other 195 0.4 Registered Nurse
Margaret Villamizar Other 89 0.2 Language Assessor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 78.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 21.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46