Riding profile

Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.3
P(close race)
10%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 45.4%
  • Conservative 38.1%
  • NDP 3.8%
  • PPC 1.6%
  • Green 1.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereWindsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore 45.4%38.1%3.8%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −3.7 35.3% +2.8 4.8% −1.0 1.1% +0.4
National averageCanada 48.0% −2.6 32.1% +6.0 10.6% −6.8 1.0% +0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 38% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 87% anglophone.

Sitting member

Kathy Borrelli

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.0 pts
Turnout
66.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kathy Borrelli Elected Conservative 32,090 45.8 Retired
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal 32,086 45.7 Parliamentarian
Alex Ilijoski NDP 4,240 6.0 Ambulance Communications Officer
Nick Babic PPC 828 1.2 Self-Employed
Roxanne Tellier Green 468 0.7 Retired
Helmi Charif Other 223 0.3 Businessman
Beth St Denis Other 203 0.3 Executive Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.8%
  • Anglophone 87.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46