Riding profile

Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Windsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 87% anglophone.

Sitting member

Kathy Borrelli

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
79%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
96%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 41.8%
  • Conservative 40.3%
  • NDP 5.5%
  • PPC 1.5%
  • Green 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereWindsor--Tecumseh--Lakeshore 41.8%40.3%5.5%1.5%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% −3.8 37.5% +2.8 6.4% −0.9 1.1% +0.5
National averageCanada 41.9% −0.1 34.8% +5.5 14.2% −8.7 1.0% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.0 pts
Turnout
66.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kathy Borrelli Elected Conservative 32,090 45.8 Retired
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal 32,086 45.7 Parliamentarian
Alex Ilijoski NDP 4,240 6.0 Ambulance Communications Officer
Nick Babic PPC 828 1.2 Self-Employed
Roxanne Tellier Green 468 0.7 Retired
Helmi Charif Other 223 0.3 Businessman
Beth St Denis Other 203 0.3 Executive Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.8%
  • Anglophone 87.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46