Riding profile

London West

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

London West: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

London West, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Arielle Kayabaga

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.2%
  • Conservative 31.6%
  • NDP 5.4%
  • Green 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereLondon West 52.2%31.6%5.4%1.2%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +6.6 37.5% −5.9 6.4% −1.0 1.6% −0.5
National averageCanada 41.9% +10.3 34.8% −3.2 14.2% −8.8 2.1% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
19.1 pts
Turnout
72.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Arielle Kayabaga Elected Liberal 35,309 56.2 Parliamentarian
Adam Benni Conservative 23,239 37.0 Banking
Shinade Allder NDP 3,463 5.5 Network Management
Jeff Vanderzwet Green 427 0.7 Retired IT Manager
Russell Benner Other 185 0.3 Warehouse Associate
Christine Oliver Other 185 0.3 Sales Representative

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 85.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 14.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46