Riding profile

London--Fanshawe

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

London--Fanshawe: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
2.7
P(close race)
91%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 32.8%
  • Liberal 30.2%
  • NDP 21.9%
  • PPC 1.7%
  • Green 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereLondon--Fanshawe 32.8%30.2%21.9%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% −2.5 49.1% −18.9 4.8% +17.1 1.1% +0.6
National averageCanada 32.1% +0.7 48.0% −17.8 10.6% +11.3 1.0% +0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

London--Fanshawe, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kurt Holman

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.0 pts
Turnout
63.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kurt Holman Elected Conservative 23,749 40.6 IT Specialist
Najam Naqvi Liberal 17,863 30.5 Lawyer
Lindsay Mathyssen NDP 16,135 27.6 Parliamentarian
Daniel Buta PPC 776 1.3 Manufacturing Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 85.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 14.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46