Riding profile
London--Fanshawe
The question
London--Fanshawe: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
London--Fanshawe, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kurt Holman
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.3
- P(close race)
- 4%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLondon--Fanshawe | 35.0% | 26.6% | 23.5% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 37.5% −2.5 | 45.6% −19.0 | 6.4% +17.2 | 1.1% +0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +0.2 | 41.9% −15.3 | 14.2% +9.3 | 1.0% +0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holman Elected | Conservative | 23,749 | 40.6 | IT Specialist |
| Najam Naqvi | Liberal | 17,863 | 30.5 | Lawyer |
| Lindsay Mathyssen | NDP | 16,135 | 27.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Daniel Buta | PPC | 776 | 1.3 | Manufacturing Engineer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 85.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 14.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Brantford--Brant South--Six NationsConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Bruce--Grey--Owen SoundConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Chatham-Kent--LeamingtonConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Elgin--St. Thomas--London SouthConservative Toss-upOpen →
- EssexConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Haldimand--NorfolkConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46