Riding profile

St. Catharines

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · southwestern on

The question

St. Catharines: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.8%
  • Conservative 32.4%
  • NDP 4.2%
  • PPC 1.2%
  • Green 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereSt. Catharines 51.8%32.4%4.2%1.2%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +2.7 35.3% −2.9 4.8% −0.6 1.1% +0.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +3.8 32.1% +0.3 10.6% −6.4 1.0% +0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

St. Catharines, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 92% anglophone.

Sitting member

Chris Bittle

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
11.5 pts
Turnout
69.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Bittle Elected Liberal 34,750 52.0 Parliamentarian
Bas Sluijmers Conservative 27,013 40.4 Sales
Karen Orlandi NDP 4,021 6.0 Minister
Dennis Wilson PPC 522 0.8 Retired
Christopher Reilly Independent 306 0.5 Registered Practical Nurse
Taha Alexander Haj-Ahmad Other 198 0.3 Scientist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 91.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 7.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46