Riding profile

Niagara South

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · southwestern on

The question

Niagara South: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
70%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 43.8%
  • Conservative 39.8%
  • NDP 4.1%
  • PPC 1.9%
  • Green 1.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereNiagara South 43.8%39.8%4.1%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −5.3 35.3% +4.5 4.8% −0.7 1.1% +0.8
National averageCanada 48.0% −4.2 32.1% +7.7 10.6% −6.5 1.0% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Niagara South, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Fred Davies

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.9 pts
Turnout
67.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Fred Davies Elected Conservative 36,702 47.8 Entrepreneur
Vance Badawey Liberal 33,708 43.9 Parliamentarian
Chantal McCollum NDP 4,307 5.6 Lawyer
Peter Taras PPC 1,147 1.5 Self-Employed
Natashia Bergen Green 683 0.9 Horticulture Entrepreneur
David Vedova Other 216 0.3 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.1%
  • Anglophone 94.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46