Riding profile

Niagara South

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · southwestern on

The question

Niagara South: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Niagara South, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Fred Davies

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
80%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 41.9%
  • Liberal 40.3%
  • NDP 5.8%
  • PPC 1.8%
  • Green 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereNiagara South 41.9%40.3%5.8%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +4.4 45.6% −5.3 6.4% −0.5 1.1% +0.8
National averageCanada 34.8% +7.1 41.9% −1.6 14.2% −8.3 1.0% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.9 pts
Turnout
67.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Fred Davies Elected Conservative 36,702 47.8 Entrepreneur
Vance Badawey Liberal 33,708 43.9 Parliamentarian
Chantal McCollum NDP 4,307 5.6 Lawyer
Peter Taras PPC 1,147 1.5 Self-Employed
Natashia Bergen Green 683 0.9 Horticulture Entrepreneur
David Vedova Other 216 0.3 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.1%
  • Anglophone 94.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46