Riding profile

Calgary Heritage

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary Heritage: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.0
P(close race)
20%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.5%
  • Conservative 44.4%
  • NDP 2.7%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCalgary Heritage 51.5%44.4%2.7%1.8%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +10.6 43.8% +0.6 5.2% −2.6 1.5% +0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% +3.5 32.1% +12.3 10.6% −7.9 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Calgary Heritage, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 44% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Shuvaloy Majumdar

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
26.7 pts
Turnout
73.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shuv Majumdar Elected Conservative 42,088 61.4 Parliamentarian
Scott Arnott Liberal 23,673 34.6 Retired Corporate Accountant
Becki Zimmerman NDP 1,691 2.5 Home Reservation Specialist
Ravenmoon Crocker Green 493 0.7 Administration
Chris Galas Independent 280 0.4 Retired Engineer
Larry R. Heather Other 268 0.4 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 83.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 16.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46