Riding profile
Calgary Shepard
The question
Calgary Shepard: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Calgary Shepard, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tom Kmiec
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.8
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCalgary Shepard | 51.2% | 38.4% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 44.0% +7.2 | 35.7% +2.7 | 7.2% −2.2 | 1.2% |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +16.4 | 41.9% −3.5 | 14.2% −9.2 | 2.1% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kmiec Elected | Conservative | 44,363 | 68.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Gul Khan | Liberal | 18,421 | 28.2 | Business Manager |
| Tory Tomblin | NDP | 1,780 | 2.7 | Labour Relations Officer |
| Donald Legere | PPC | 383 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Robert Frasch | Green | 302 | 0.5 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 86.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 13.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46