Riding profile
Calgary Shepard
The question
Calgary Shepard: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.8
- P(close race)
- 39%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCalgary Shepard | 51.0% | 45.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 43.8% +7.2 | 40.8% +4.4 | 5.2% −2.5 | 1.5% |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +18.9 | 48.0% −2.8 | 10.6% −7.9 | 2.7% −1.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Calgary Shepard, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 45% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Tom Kmiec
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Kmiec Elected | Conservative | 44,363 | 68.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Gul Khan | Liberal | 18,421 | 28.2 | Business Manager |
| Tory Tomblin | NDP | 1,780 | 2.7 | Labour Relations Officer |
| Donald Legere | PPC | 383 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Robert Frasch | Green | 302 | 0.5 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 86.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 13.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46