Riding profile

Calgary Confederation

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary Confederation: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Calgary Confederation, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 58% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Corey Hogan

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 58.1%
  • Conservative 29.4%
  • NDP 5.3%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCalgary Confederation 58.1%29.4%5.3%1.4%
Provincial averageAlberta 35.7% +22.4 44.0% −14.6 7.2% −1.9 1.2% +0.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +16.2 34.8% −5.4 14.2% −8.9 2.1% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
1.8 pts
Turnout
74.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+26.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Corey Hogan Elected Liberal 33,112 48.1 University Executive
Jeremy Nixon Conservative 31,839 46.3 Stakeholder Relations
Keira Gunn NDP 2,844 4.1 University Instructor
Richard Willott Green 400 0.6 Retired
Artyom Ovsepyan PPC 302 0.4 IT System Administrator
Jeffrey Reid Marsh Other 198 0.3 Community Volunteer
Kevan Hunter Other 144 0.2 Teacher

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 89.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 10.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46