Riding profile

Calgary Nose Hill

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary Nose Hill: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.6
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.1%
  • Conservative 42.4%
  • NDP 2.9%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCalgary Nose Hill 53.1%42.4%2.9%1.8%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +12.2 43.8% −1.4 5.2% −2.4 1.5% +0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% +5.1 32.1% +10.3 10.6% −7.8 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Calgary Nose Hill, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Michelle Rempel Garner

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
23.1 pts
Turnout
69.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michelle Rempel Garner Elected Conservative 36,597 59.4 Parliamentarian
Tom Becker Liberal 22,276 36.2 Retired Geologist
Ahmed Khan NDP 1,975 3.2 Self-Employed Consultant Geologist
Addison Fach Green 430 0.7 Labourer
Vanessa Wang Other 199 0.3 Laboratory Team Lead
Peggy Askin Other 115 0.2 Retired Telecommunications Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 78.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 21.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46