Riding profile

Calgary Nose Hill

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary Nose Hill: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Calgary Nose Hill, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 43% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Michelle Rempel Garner

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
3.9
P(close race)
68%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 46.3%
  • Conservative 42.6%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • Green 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCalgary Nose Hill 46.3%42.6%5.1%1.5%
Provincial averageAlberta 35.7% +10.6 44.0% −1.4 7.2% −2.1 1.2% +0.3
National averageCanada 41.9% +4.4 34.8% +7.8 14.2% −9.1 2.1% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
23.1 pts
Turnout
69.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michelle Rempel Garner Elected Conservative 36,597 59.4 Parliamentarian
Tom Becker Liberal 22,276 36.2 Retired Geologist
Ahmed Khan NDP 1,975 3.2 Self-Employed Consultant Geologist
Addison Fach Green 430 0.7 Labourer
Vanessa Wang Other 199 0.3 Laboratory Team Lead
Peggy Askin Other 115 0.2 Retired Telecommunications Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 78.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 21.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46