Riding profile
Calgary Centre
The question
Calgary Centre: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Editorial read
Calgary Centre, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 86% anglophone.
Sitting member
Greg McLean
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 22.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCalgary Centre | 55.8% | 33.4% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 35.7% +20.1 | 44.0% −10.6 | 7.2% −2.2 | 1.2% +0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +13.9 | 34.8% −1.4 | 14.2% −9.2 | 2.1% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg McLean Elected | Conservative | 31,604 | 50.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Lindsay Luhnau | Liberal | 28,824 | 45.8 | Municipal Public Servant |
| Beau Shaw | NDP | 1,665 | 2.6 | Electronics Technologist |
| Robert Hawley | PPC | 365 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Jayden Baldonado | Green | 362 | 0.6 | Student |
| Scott Fea | Other | 126 | 0.2 | Technical Support |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.8%
- Anglophone 86.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 12.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46