Riding profile
Calgary Centre
The question
Calgary Centre: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCalgary Centre | 62.6% | 33.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 40.8% +21.8 | 43.8% −10.6 | 5.2% −2.5 | 1.5% +0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +14.6 | 32.1% +1.1 | 10.6% −7.9 | 2.7% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Calgary Centre, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 86% anglophone.
Sitting member
Greg McLean
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg McLean Elected | Conservative | 31,604 | 50.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Lindsay Luhnau | Liberal | 28,824 | 45.8 | Municipal Public Servant |
| Beau Shaw | NDP | 1,665 | 2.6 | Electronics Technologist |
| Robert Hawley | PPC | 365 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Jayden Baldonado | Green | 362 | 0.6 | Student |
| Scott Fea | Other | 126 | 0.2 | Technical Support |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.8%
- Anglophone 86.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 12.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46