Riding profile

Calgary East

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
44%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 48.6%
  • Conservative 43.3%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • Green 2.3%
  • PPC 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCalgary East 48.6%43.3%3.0%2.3%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +7.8 43.8% −0.5 5.2% −2.2 1.5% +0.8
National averageCanada 48.0% +0.6 32.1% +11.2 10.6% −7.6 2.7% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Calgary East, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 43% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jasraj Hallan

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
28.5 pts
Turnout
60.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jasraj Hallan Elected Conservative 32,490 60.5 Parliamentarian
Priti Obhrai-Martin Liberal 17,062 31.8 Communication Strategist Consultant
Jennifer Geha NDP 2,092 3.9 Unemployed
Harry Dhillon PPC 908 1.7 Driving Instructor
Carey Rutherford Green 664 1.2 Publisher
Garry Dirk Other 321 0.6 Pastor
Jonathan Trautman Other 137 0.3 Shipper

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 79.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 20.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46