Riding profile

Calgary McKnight

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary McKnight: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 62.4%
  • Conservative 31.7%
  • NDP 2.8%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCalgary McKnight 62.4%31.7%2.8%1.7%
Provincial averageAlberta 40.8% +21.6 43.8% −12.1 5.2% −2.5 1.5% +0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +14.4 32.1% −0.4 10.6% −7.8 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Calgary McKnight, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dalwinder Gill

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.1 pts
Turnout
56.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+27.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dalwinder Gill Elected Conservative 20,863 49.1 Realtor
George Chahal Liberal 19,546 46.0 Parliamentarian
Arlington Antonio Santiago NDP 1,204 2.8 Screening Officer
Najeeb Butt PPC 323 0.8 Realtor
Evelyn Tanaka Green 273 0.6 Project Manager
Benjamin Cridland Other 162 0.4 Warehouse Supervisor
Syed Hasnain Other 107 0.3 Accountant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 55.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 44.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46