Riding profile

Calgary McKnight

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary McKnight: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Editorial read

Calgary McKnight, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dalwinder Gill

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 55.7%
  • Conservative 31.9%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCalgary McKnight 55.7%31.9%5.0%1.4%
Provincial averageAlberta 35.7% +19.9 44.0% −12.1 7.2% −2.2 1.2% +0.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +13.8 34.8% −2.9 14.2% −9.2 2.1% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.1 pts
Turnout
56.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+20.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dalwinder Gill Elected Conservative 20,863 49.1 Realtor
George Chahal Liberal 19,546 46.0 Parliamentarian
Arlington Antonio Santiago NDP 1,204 2.8 Screening Officer
Najeeb Butt PPC 323 0.8 Realtor
Evelyn Tanaka Green 273 0.6 Project Manager
Benjamin Cridland Other 162 0.4 Warehouse Supervisor
Syed Hasnain Other 107 0.3 Accountant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 55.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 44.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46