Riding profile

Calgary Midnapore

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary Midnapore: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Calgary Midnapore, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 87% anglophone.

Sitting member

Stephanie Kusie

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.6
P(close race)
11%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 48.7%
  • Liberal 40.1%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • Green 1.5%
  • PPC 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereCalgary Midnapore 48.7%40.1%5.1%1.5%
Provincial averageAlberta 44.0% +4.7 35.7% +4.4 7.2% −2.1 1.2% +0.3
National averageCanada 34.8% +13.9 41.9% −1.8 14.2% −9.1 2.1% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
35.4 pts
Turnout
73.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stephanie Kusie Elected Conservative 48,131 65.5 Parliamentarian
Sunjiv Raval Liberal 21,979 29.9 Operational Service
Austin Mullins NDP 2,271 3.1 Customer Service Professional
Colin Kindret PPC 556 0.8 Self-Employed Driver
Adam Delgado Green 495 0.7 Recruitment Director

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 86.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46