Riding profile

Calgary Midnapore

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary Midnapore: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
74%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
92%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 48.5%
  • Liberal 46.8%
  • NDP 2.8%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereCalgary Midnapore 48.5%46.8%2.8%1.8%
Provincial averageAlberta 43.8% +4.7 40.8% +6.0 5.2% −2.4 1.5% +0.3
National averageCanada 32.1% +16.4 48.0% −1.2 10.6% −7.8 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Calgary Midnapore, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 35-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 47% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 87% anglophone.

Sitting member

Stephanie Kusie

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
35.4 pts
Turnout
73.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-33.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stephanie Kusie Elected Conservative 48,131 65.5 Parliamentarian
Sunjiv Raval Liberal 21,979 29.9 Operational Service
Austin Mullins NDP 2,271 3.1 Customer Service Professional
Colin Kindret PPC 556 0.8 Self-Employed Driver
Adam Delgado Green 495 0.7 Recruitment Director

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 86.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46