Riding profile
Calgary Crowfoot
The question
Calgary Crowfoot: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCalgary Crowfoot | 54.2% | 41.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 40.8% +13.4 | 43.8% −2.0 | 5.2% −2.5 | 1.5% +0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +6.2 | 32.1% +9.7 | 10.6% −7.9 | 2.7% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Calgary Crowfoot, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Pat Kelly
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Kelly Elected | Conservative | 39,971 | 58.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Shahnaz Munir | Liberal | 25,386 | 37.4 | Teacher |
| Jim Samuelson | NDP | 1,741 | 2.6 | Canada Post Letter Carrier |
| Yvonne Snyder | PPC | 360 | 0.5 | Teacher |
| Nanette Nerland | Green | 346 | 0.5 | Career Coach |
| Lachlan Van Egmond | Independent | 131 | 0.2 | Student |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46