Riding profile

Calgary Crowfoot

Federal riding — AB · Urban · calgary

The question

Calgary Crowfoot: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Calgary Crowfoot, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Pat Kelly

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
5.5
P(close race)
45%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.5%
  • Conservative 42.0%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 1.3%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCalgary Crowfoot 47.5%42.0%5.0%1.3%
Provincial averageAlberta 35.7% +11.8 44.0% −2.0 7.2% −2.2 1.2% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +5.6 34.8% +7.2 14.2% −9.3 2.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
21.4 pts
Turnout
73.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-15.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pat Kelly Elected Conservative 39,971 58.8 Parliamentarian
Shahnaz Munir Liberal 25,386 37.4 Teacher
Jim Samuelson NDP 1,741 2.6 Canada Post Letter Carrier
Yvonne Snyder PPC 360 0.5 Teacher
Nanette Nerland Green 346 0.5 Career Coach
Lachlan Van Egmond Independent 131 0.2 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46