Riding profile
Calgary Crowfoot
The question
Calgary Crowfoot: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Calgary Crowfoot, an urban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Pat Kelly
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Liberal
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.5
- P(close race)
- 45%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCalgary Crowfoot | 47.5% | 42.0% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 35.7% +11.8 | 44.0% −2.0 | 7.2% −2.2 | 1.2% +0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +5.6 | 34.8% +7.2 | 14.2% −9.3 | 2.1% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Kelly Elected | Conservative | 39,971 | 58.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Shahnaz Munir | Liberal | 25,386 | 37.4 | Teacher |
| Jim Samuelson | NDP | 1,741 | 2.6 | Canada Post Letter Carrier |
| Yvonne Snyder | PPC | 360 | 0.5 | Teacher |
| Nanette Nerland | Green | 346 | 0.5 | Career Coach |
| Lachlan Van Egmond | Independent | 131 | 0.2 | Student |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46