Riding profile

Airdrie--Cochrane

Federal riding — AB · Suburban · calgary

The question

Airdrie--Cochrane: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Airdrie--Cochrane, a suburban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 47-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 32% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Blake Richards

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 52.7%
  • Liberal 31.8%
  • NDP 4.7%
  • Green 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereAirdrie--Cochrane 52.7%31.8%4.7%0.8%
Provincial averageAlberta 44.0% +8.7 35.7% −3.9 7.2% −2.5 1.2% −0.4
National averageCanada 34.8% +17.9 41.9% −10.1 14.2% −9.5 2.1% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
47.2 pts
Turnout
74.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Blake Richards Elected Conservative 50,252 71.2 Parliamentarian
Sean Secord Liberal 16,714 23.7 VP of Start-up Biotechnology Company
Sarah Zagoda NDP 2,591 3.7 School Technologist
David Sabine Other 623 0.9 Management Consultant
Christopher Bell Other 380 0.5 Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.8%
  • Anglophone 93.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46