Riding profile

Airdrie--Cochrane

Federal riding — AB · Suburban · calgary

The question

Airdrie--Cochrane: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 52.5%
  • Liberal 37.2%
  • NDP 2.7%
  • Green 1.1%
  • PPC 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereAirdrie--Cochrane 52.5%37.2%2.7%1.1%
Provincial averageAlberta 43.8% +8.7 40.8% −3.6 5.2% −2.5 1.5% −0.4
National averageCanada 32.1% +20.4 48.0% −10.8 10.6% −7.9 2.7% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Airdrie--Cochrane, a suburban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 47-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 37% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Blake Richards

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
47.2 pts
Turnout
74.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-31.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Blake Richards Elected Conservative 50,252 71.2 Parliamentarian
Sean Secord Liberal 16,714 23.7 VP of Start-up Biotechnology Company
Sarah Zagoda NDP 2,591 3.7 School Technologist
David Sabine Other 623 0.9 Management Consultant
Christopher Bell Other 380 0.5 Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.8%
  • Anglophone 93.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46