Riding profile
Foothills
The question
Foothills: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFoothills | 54.8% | 25.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 43.8% +11.0 | 40.8% −15.1 | 5.2% −3.2 | 1.5% +0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +22.7 | 48.0% −22.2 | 10.6% −8.6 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Foothills, a suburban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 57-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 26% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 94% anglophone.
Sitting member
John Barlow
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Barlow Elected | Conservative | 54,874 | 76.3 | Parliamentarian |
| John Bruinsma | Liberal | 13,706 | 19.1 | Retired |
| Kaitte Aurora | NDP | 1,923 | 2.7 | Engineering |
| Paul O'Halloran | PPC | 796 | 1.1 | Semi-Retired |
| Emma Hoberg | Green | 589 | 0.8 | Western Organizer - Green Party of Canada |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.3%
- Anglophone 94.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 5.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46