Riding profile

Foothills

Federal riding — AB · Suburban · calgary

The question

Foothills: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Foothills, a suburban riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 57-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 23% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 94% anglophone.

Sitting member

John Barlow

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 55.0%
  • Liberal 23.1%
  • NDP 3.5%
  • Green 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereFoothills 55.0%23.1%3.5%1.6%
Provincial averageAlberta 44.0% +11.0 35.7% −12.7 7.2% −3.6 1.2% +0.4
National averageCanada 34.8% +20.3 41.9% −18.8 14.2% −10.7 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
57.0 pts
Turnout
74.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Barlow Elected Conservative 54,874 76.3 Parliamentarian
John Bruinsma Liberal 13,706 19.1 Retired
Kaitte Aurora NDP 1,923 2.7 Engineering
Paul O'Halloran PPC 796 1.1 Semi-Retired
Emma Hoberg Green 589 0.8 Western Organizer - Green Party of Canada

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 94.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46