Riding profile

Lethbridge

Federal riding — AB · Mixed · ab rural

The question

Lethbridge: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
54%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 39.6%
  • Liberal 39.4%
  • NDP 2.3%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereLethbridge 39.6%39.4%2.3%1.8%
Provincial averageAlberta 43.8% −4.2 40.8% −1.4 5.2% −2.9 1.5% +0.3
National averageCanada 32.1% +7.5 48.0% −8.6 10.6% −8.3 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Lethbridge, a mixed riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 40% vote share, against 39% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 92% anglophone.

Sitting member

Rachael Thomas

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
28.2 pts
Turnout
70.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-26.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rachael Thomas Elected Conservative 40,866 61.1 Parliamentarian
Chris Spearman Liberal 21,899 32.7 Retired
Nathan Svoboda NDP 2,431 3.6 Primary Care Paramedic
Marc Slingerland Other 806 1.2 Teacher
Clara Piedalue PPC 478 0.7 Business Broker
Amber Murray Green 457 0.7 Landscaper

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 92.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 7.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46