Riding profile
Bow River
The question
Bow River: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Bow River, a rural riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 62-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 21% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
David Bexte
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 36.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBow River | 57.4% | 20.9% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 44.0% +13.4 | 35.7% −14.9 | 7.2% −3.6 | 1.2% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +22.6 | 41.9% −21.0 | 14.2% −10.6 | 2.1% −1.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bexte Elected | Conservative | 44,605 | 78.9 | Farmer |
| Bentley Barnes | Liberal | 9,562 | 16.9 | Retired |
| Louisa Gwin | NDP | 1,689 | 3.0 | Commercial Construction Estimator |
| Tom Lipp | Other | 402 | 0.7 | Financial Advisor |
| Aaron Patton | Other | 296 | 0.5 | Pastor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 83.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 16.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46