Riding profile
Bow River
The question
Bow River: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 33.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBow River | 57.1% | 23.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 43.8% +13.3 | 40.8% −17.3 | 5.2% −3.1 | 1.5% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +25.0 | 48.0% −24.4 | 10.6% −8.5 | 2.7% −1.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Bow River, a rural riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 62-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 24% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
David Bexte
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bexte Elected | Conservative | 44,605 | 78.9 | Farmer |
| Bentley Barnes | Liberal | 9,562 | 16.9 | Retired |
| Louisa Gwin | NDP | 1,689 | 3.0 | Commercial Construction Estimator |
| Tom Lipp | Other | 402 | 0.7 | Financial Advisor |
| Aaron Patton | Other | 296 | 0.5 | Pastor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 83.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 16.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46