Riding profile

Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner

Federal riding — AB · Mixed · ab rural

The question

Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner, a mixed riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 59-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 22% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 92% anglophone.

Sitting member

Glen Motz

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 55.3%
  • Liberal 21.6%
  • NDP 4.1%
  • Green 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereMedicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 55.3%21.6%4.1%1.6%
Provincial averageAlberta 44.0% +11.3 35.7% −14.1 7.2% −3.1 1.2% +0.4
National averageCanada 34.8% +20.5 41.9% −20.3 14.2% −10.1 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
58.7 pts
Turnout
67.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-25.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Glen Motz Elected Conservative 41,518 76.7 Parliamentarian
Tom Rooke Liberal 9,554 17.7 Retired
Jocelyn Johnson NDP 2,588 4.8 Communications
Andy Shadrack Green 440 0.8 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 91.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 8.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46