Riding profile
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner
The question
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 30.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMedicine Hat--Cardston--Warner | 55.0% | 24.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 43.8% +11.3 | 40.8% −16.5 | 5.2% −2.7 | 1.5% +0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +22.9 | 48.0% −23.7 | 10.6% −8.1 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner, a mixed riding in Alberta, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 59-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 24% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 92% anglophone.
Sitting member
Glen Motz
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glen Motz Elected | Conservative | 41,518 | 76.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Tom Rooke | Liberal | 9,554 | 17.7 | Retired |
| Jocelyn Johnson | NDP | 2,588 | 4.8 | Communications |
| Andy Shadrack | Green | 440 | 0.8 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.2%
- Anglophone 91.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 8.0%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46