Riding profile

Swift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley

Federal riding — SK · Rural · sk rural

The question

Swift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 66.8%
  • Liberal 15.7%
  • NDP 1.4%
  • Green 1.1%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereSwift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley 66.8%15.7%1.4%1.1%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 49.1% +17.7 35.5% −19.8 2.6% −1.1 1.5% −0.5
National averageCanada 32.1% +34.6 48.0% −32.3 10.6% −9.2 2.7% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Swift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley, a rural riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 70-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 67% vote share, against 16% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 90% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jeremy Patzer

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
70.3 pts
Turnout
70.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jeremy Patzer Elected Conservative 32,292 82.0 Parliamentarian
William Caton Liberal 4,420 11.2 Rancher
Alex McPhee NDP 2,250 5.7 Cartographer
Maria Rose Lewans Independent 426 1.1 Plumber

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 89.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 10.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46