Riding profile

Swift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley

Federal riding — SK · Rural · sk rural

The question

Swift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Swift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley, a rural riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 70-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 69% vote share, against 13% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 90% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jeremy Patzer

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
56.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 68.8%
  • Liberal 12.7%
  • NDP 2.9%
  • Green 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereSwift Current--Grasslands--Kindersley 68.8%12.7%2.9%0.8%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 50.9% +17.8 30.6% −17.9 4.4% −1.5 1.2% −0.5
National averageCanada 34.8% +34.0 41.9% −29.2 14.2% −11.3 2.1% −1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
70.3 pts
Turnout
70.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jeremy Patzer Elected Conservative 32,292 82.0 Parliamentarian
William Caton Liberal 4,420 11.2 Rancher
Alex McPhee NDP 2,250 5.7 Cartographer
Maria Rose Lewans Independent 426 1.1 Plumber

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 89.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 10.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46