Riding profile

Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek

Federal riding — SK · Rural · sk rural

The question

Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 62.2%
  • Liberal 21.4%
  • NDP 1.4%
  • Green 1.1%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereCarlton Trail--Eagle Creek 62.2%21.4%1.4%1.1%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 49.1% +13.1 35.5% −14.0 2.6% −1.2 1.5% −0.5
National averageCanada 32.1% +30.1 48.0% −26.6 10.6% −9.2 2.7% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek, a rural riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 60-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 21% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Kelly Block

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
60.0 pts
Turnout
75.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kelly Block Elected Conservative 36,427 77.4 Parliamentarian
Katelyn Zimmer Liberal 8,008 17.0 Veterinarian
Cheryl Loadman NDP 2,616 5.6 Professor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 96.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46