Riding profile

Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek

Federal riding — SK · Rural · sk rural

The question

Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek, a rural riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 60-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 64% vote share, against 18% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Kelly Block

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
45.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 64.3%
  • Liberal 18.5%
  • NDP 2.9%
  • Green 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereCarlton Trail--Eagle Creek 64.3%18.5%2.9%0.8%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 50.9% +13.3 30.6% −12.1 4.4% −1.5 1.2% −0.5
National averageCanada 34.8% +29.5 41.9% −23.4 14.2% −11.3 2.1% −1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
60.0 pts
Turnout
75.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kelly Block Elected Conservative 36,427 77.4 Parliamentarian
Katelyn Zimmer Liberal 8,008 17.0 Veterinarian
Cheryl Loadman NDP 2,616 5.6 Professor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 96.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46