Riding profile

Saskatoon South

Federal riding — SK · Urban · sk urban

The question

Saskatoon South: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Saskatoon South, an urban riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 39% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kevin Waugh

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
49%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.0%
  • Conservative 38.9%
  • NDP 4.5%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSaskatoon South 44.0%38.9%4.5%1.4%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 30.6% +13.5 50.9% −12.0 4.4% +0.1 1.2% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +2.1 34.8% +4.1 14.2% −9.7 2.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
8.8 pts
Turnout
72.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kevin Waugh Elected Conservative 24,516 49.3 Parliamentarian
Rokhan Sarwar Liberal 20,107 40.4 Retail Manager
Jacob Gadzella NDP 4,515 9.1 Digital Communications Specialist
Hamish Graham Green 310 0.6 Farmer
Richard Brent Wintringham PPC 308 0.6 Truck Driver

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 87.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46