Riding profile
Saskatoon South
The question
Saskatoon South: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaskatoon South | 51.5% | 37.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageSaskatchewan | 35.5% +16.0 | 49.1% −11.8 | 2.6% −0.3 | 1.5% +0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +3.5 | 32.1% +5.2 | 10.6% −8.3 | 2.7% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saskatoon South, an urban riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kevin Waugh
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Waugh Elected | Conservative | 24,516 | 49.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Rokhan Sarwar | Liberal | 20,107 | 40.4 | Retail Manager |
| Jacob Gadzella | NDP | 4,515 | 9.1 | Digital Communications Specialist |
| Hamish Graham | Green | 310 | 0.6 | Farmer |
| Richard Brent Wintringham | PPC | 308 | 0.6 | Truck Driver |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 87.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 12.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46