Riding profile
Saskatoon--University
The question
Saskatoon--University: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaskatoon--University | 52.5% | 37.0% | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageSaskatchewan | 35.5% +17.0 | 49.1% −12.1 | 2.6% −0.4 | 1.5% +0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +4.5 | 32.1% +4.9 | 10.6% −8.5 | 2.7% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saskatoon--University, an urban riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Corey Tochor
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Tochor Elected | Conservative | 23,178 | 48.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Greg Poelzer | Liberal | 19,622 | 41.4 | University Professor |
| Melissa McGillivray | NDP | 4,035 | 8.5 | Registered Nurse |
| Jaxson Boot | PPC | 327 | 0.7 | Self-Employed Equipment Operator |
| Isaiah Hunter | Green | 263 | 0.6 | University Student |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 88.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 11.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46