Riding profile

Saskatoon--University

Federal riding — SK · Urban · sk urban

The question

Saskatoon--University: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Editorial read

Saskatoon--University, an urban riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 39% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Corey Tochor

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
6.5
P(close race)
31%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 45.1%
  • Conservative 38.6%
  • NDP 4.4%
  • Green 1.3%
  • PPC 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSaskatoon--University 45.1%38.6%4.4%1.3%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 30.6% +14.5 50.9% −12.4 4.4% 1.2% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +3.2 34.8% +3.8 14.2% −9.8 2.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.5 pts
Turnout
72.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Corey Tochor Elected Conservative 23,178 48.9 Parliamentarian
Greg Poelzer Liberal 19,622 41.4 University Professor
Melissa McGillivray NDP 4,035 8.5 Registered Nurse
Jaxson Boot PPC 327 0.7 Self-Employed Equipment Operator
Isaiah Hunter Green 263 0.6 University Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 88.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46