Riding profile

Saskatoon--University

Federal riding — SK · Urban · sk urban

The question

Saskatoon--University: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.5%
  • Conservative 37.0%
  • NDP 2.1%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSaskatoon--University 52.5%37.0%2.1%1.6%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 35.5% +17.0 49.1% −12.1 2.6% −0.4 1.5% +0.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +4.5 32.1% +4.9 10.6% −8.5 2.7% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Saskatoon--University, an urban riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Corey Tochor

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.5 pts
Turnout
72.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Corey Tochor Elected Conservative 23,178 48.9 Parliamentarian
Greg Poelzer Liberal 19,622 41.4 University Professor
Melissa McGillivray NDP 4,035 8.5 Registered Nurse
Jaxson Boot PPC 327 0.7 Self-Employed Equipment Operator
Isaiah Hunter Green 263 0.6 University Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 88.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46