Riding profile
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan
The question
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 35.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMoose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan | 56.8% | 21.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageSaskatchewan | 49.1% +7.7 | 35.5% −14.3 | 1.1% +2.3 | 1.5% +0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +24.7 | 48.0% −26.9 | 1.0% +2.4 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan, a mixed riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 55-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 21% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.
Sitting member
Fraser Tolmie
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fraser Tolmie Elected | Conservative | 32,991 | 71.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Tabitha Mukamusoni | Liberal | 7,661 | 16.7 | General Manager |
| Britt Baumann | NDP | 3,458 | 7.5 | Academic Researcher |
| Chey Craik | PPC | 1,358 | 3.0 | Training Program Manager |
| Mike Gardiner | Green | 411 | 0.9 | Social Worker |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.3%
- Anglophone 95.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 3.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46