Riding profile

Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan

Federal riding — SK · Mixed · sk urban

The question

Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan, a mixed riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 55-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 18% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Fraser Tolmie

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 58.9%
  • Liberal 18.2%
  • NDP 3.4%
  • PPC 3.4%
  • Green 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereMoose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 58.9%18.2%3.4%3.4%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 50.9% +7.9 30.6% −12.4 4.4% −1.0 0.9% +2.4
National averageCanada 34.8% +24.1 41.9% −23.7 14.2% −10.8 1.0% +2.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
54.9 pts
Turnout
73.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Fraser Tolmie Elected Conservative 32,991 71.9 Parliamentarian
Tabitha Mukamusoni Liberal 7,661 16.7 General Manager
Britt Baumann NDP 3,458 7.5 Academic Researcher
Chey Craik PPC 1,358 3.0 Training Program Manager
Mike Gardiner Green 411 0.9 Social Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 95.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46