Riding profile

Regina--Qu'Appelle

Federal riding — SK · Urban · sk urban

The question

Regina--Qu'Appelle: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 51.9%
  • Liberal 38.2%
  • NDP 2.0%
  • PPC 1.5%
  • Green 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereRegina--Qu'Appelle 51.9%38.2%2.0%1.5%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 49.1% +2.8 35.5% +2.7 2.6% −0.6 1.1% +0.5
National averageCanada 32.1% +19.8 48.0% −9.8 10.6% −8.6 1.0% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Regina--Qu'Appelle, an urban riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 37-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andrew Scheer

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
36.7 pts
Turnout
65.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Scheer Elected Conservative 27,024 64.0 Parliamentarian
Rahima Mian Liberal 11,391 27.0 Political Staffer
Chris Simmie NDP 3,388 8.0 Freelancer
Dionne Fehler PPC 441 1.0 Architectural Technologist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 93.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46