Riding profile

Regina--Lewvan

Federal riding — SK · Urban · sk urban

The question

Regina--Lewvan: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.1%
  • Conservative 38.1%
  • Green 1.6%
  • NDP 1.5%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green NDP
HereRegina--Lewvan 54.1%38.1%1.6%1.5%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 35.5% +18.6 49.1% −11.0 1.5% +0.1 2.6% −1.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +6.1 32.1% +6.0 2.7% −1.1 10.6% −9.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Regina--Lewvan, an urban riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 38% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Warren Steinley

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.0 pts
Turnout
71.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.0 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Warren Steinley Elected Conservative 21,988 50.0 Parliamentarian
Mac Hird Liberal 18,893 43.0 Business Development
Ray Aldinger NDP 2,573 5.9 Youth Correctional Officer
Michael Wright Green 272 0.6 Teacher
Godwin Ezizor PPC 243 0.6 Pastor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 88.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46