Riding profile

Souris--Moose Mountain

Federal riding — SK · Rural · sk rural

The question

Souris--Moose Mountain: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Souris--Moose Mountain, a rural riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 74-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 71% vote share, against 11% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Steven Bonk

Sits with Conservative

Since: 2025-04-28
Parliament: 45^th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 59.6
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Conservative 70.8%
Liberal 11.3%
NDP 2.6%
Green 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Green
HereSouris--Moose Mountain	70.8%	11.3%	2.6%	1.3%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan	50.9% +19.9	30.6% −19.3	4.4% −1.7	1.2% +0.1
National averageCanada	34.8% +36.0	41.9% −30.6	14.2% −11.5	2.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by

Conservative

Margin

73.8 pts

Turnout

74.2%

Margin shift vs current projection

-14.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Steven Bonk Elected	Conservative	34,793	84.0	Businessman
Aziz Mian	Liberal	4,051	9.8	Career Coach
Sheena Muirhead Koops	NDP	1,888	4.6	Educator
Lyndon Dayman	Other	304	0.7	Safety Officer
Remi Rheault	Green	235	0.6	Retired
Travis Patron	Independent	157	0.4	Courier

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

Francophone 0.2%
Anglophone 96.3%
Non-francophone (other) 3.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 14, 2026
Cycle: fed_46