Riding profile

Souris--Moose Mountain

Federal riding — SK · Rural · sk rural

The question

Souris--Moose Mountain: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
54.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 68.8%
  • Liberal 14.3%
  • Green 1.6%
  • NDP 1.1%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Green NDP
HereSouris--Moose Mountain 68.8%14.3%1.6%1.1%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 49.1% +19.7 35.5% −21.2 1.5% +0.1 2.6% −1.4
National averageCanada 32.1% +36.7 48.0% −33.8 2.7% −1.1 10.6% −9.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Souris--Moose Mountain, a rural riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 74-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 69% vote share, against 14% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Steven Bonk

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
73.8 pts
Turnout
74.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steven Bonk Elected Conservative 34,793 84.0 Businessman
Aziz Mian Liberal 4,051 9.8 Career Coach
Sheena Muirhead Koops NDP 1,888 4.6 Educator
Lyndon Dayman Other 304 0.7 Safety Officer
Remi Rheault Green 235 0.6 Retired
Travis Patron Independent 157 0.4 Courier

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 96.3%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46