Riding profile
Brandon--Souris
The question
Brandon--Souris: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBrandon--Souris | 48.6% | 31.3% | 7.1% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 31.7% +16.9 | 49.9% −18.7 | 8.5% −1.4 | 1.7% −0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +16.5 | 48.0% −16.7 | 10.6% −3.5 | 2.7% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Brandon--Souris, a mixed riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Grant Jackson
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Jackson Elected | Conservative | 28,624 | 62.2 | Legislator |
| Ghazanfar Ali Tarar | Liberal | 10,766 | 23.4 | Business Owner |
| Quentin Robinson | NDP | 6,637 | 14.4 | Retired United Church Minister |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 89.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 10.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46