Riding profile

Brandon--Souris

Federal riding — MB · Mixed · mb rural

The question

Brandon--Souris: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Brandon--Souris, a mixed riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 38-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 26% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Grant Jackson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 50.4%
  • Liberal 26.0%
  • NDP 8.9%
  • Green 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereBrandon--Souris 50.4%26.0%8.9%0.7%
Provincial averageManitoba 33.4% +17.0 43.9% −17.9 10.5% −1.6 1.4% −0.7
National averageCanada 34.8% +15.6 41.9% −15.9 14.2% −5.3 2.1% −1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
38.5 pts
Turnout
68.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Grant Jackson Elected Conservative 28,624 62.2 Legislator
Ghazanfar Ali Tarar Liberal 10,766 23.4 Business Owner
Quentin Robinson NDP 6,637 14.4 Retired United Church Minister

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 89.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 10.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46