Riding profile

Winnipeg South Centre

Federal riding — MB · Urban · winnipeg

The question

Winnipeg South Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Winnipeg South Centre, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 68% vote share, against 16% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ben Carr

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
51.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 67.5%
  • Conservative 16.5%
  • NDP 4.3%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereWinnipeg South Centre 67.5%16.5%4.3%1.6%
Provincial averageManitoba 43.9% +23.6 33.4% −16.9 10.5% −6.2 1.4% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +25.6 34.8% −18.3 14.2% −9.9 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
35.7 pts
Turnout
74.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Carr Elected Liberal 33,834 63.6 Parliamentarian
Royden Brousseau Conservative 14,748 27.7 Financial Professional
Jorge Requena Ramos NDP 3,463 6.5 Artistic Director
Chris Petriew Green 450 0.8 Homemaker
Cam Scott Other 314 0.6 Author
Jaclyn Cummings PPC 272 0.5 Administrative Assistant
Tait Palsson Independent 97 0.2 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 87.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46