Riding profile

Winnipeg West

Federal riding — MB · Urban · winnipeg

The question

Winnipeg West: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 65.9%
  • Conservative 27.8%
  • Green 1.8%
  • NDP 1.4%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green NDP
HereWinnipeg West 65.9%27.8%1.8%1.4%
Provincial averageManitoba 49.9% +15.9 31.7% −3.8 1.7% +0.1 8.5% −7.1
National averageCanada 48.0% +17.9 32.1% −4.3 2.7% −0.9 10.6% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Winnipeg West, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 66% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Doug Eyolfson

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
13.6 pts
Turnout
75.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+24.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Doug Eyolfson Elected Liberal 30,276 54.5 Emergency Medicine Physician
Marty Morantz Conservative 22,659 40.8 Parliamentarian
Avery Selby-Lyons NDP 2,218 4.0 Sales Clerk
Dennis Bayomi Green 438 0.8 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 93.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46