Riding profile

Winnipeg North

Federal riding — MB · Urban · winnipeg

The question

Winnipeg North: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Winnipeg North, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 23% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Kevin Lamoureux

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 61.7%
  • Conservative 23.0%
  • NDP 4.1%
  • Green 1.3%
  • PPC 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereWinnipeg North 61.7%23.0%4.1%1.3%
Provincial averageManitoba 43.9% +17.8 33.4% −10.4 10.5% −6.4 1.4% −0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +19.8 34.8% −11.8 14.2% −10.1 2.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
23.4 pts
Turnout
58.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+15.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kevin Lamoureux Elected Liberal 19,792 57.9 Parliamentarian
Rachel Punzalan Conservative 11,740 34.4 Lawyer
Adebayo Akinrogunde NDP 2,059 6.0 Mental Health
Jessica Bailon PPC 274 0.8 Legal Assistant
Angela Brydges Green 194 0.6 Caregiver
Sarah Borbridge Other 114 0.3 Community Mental Health Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 64.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 36.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46