St. Boniface—St. Vital

Federal riding · Manitoba · Winnipeg

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 50.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	PPC	NDP
St. Boniface—St. Vital	69.7%	19.7%	2.6%	2.1%
Provincial averageManitoba	49.1%+20.6	30.8%−11.1	2.6%	8.8%−6.7
National averageCanada	46.8%+22.9	30.4%−10.7	2.7%−0.1	11.2%−9.1

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 4.9% English 84.9% Other languages 10.2%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Ginette Lavack · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 27.3 points, with 72.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 50.0 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Ginette Lavack Elected	Liberal	32,599	59.4	Arts Administrator
Shola Agboola	Conservative	17,625	32.1	Correctional Officer
Thomas Linner	NDP	3,773	6.9	Executive Director Community Health
Gilles Pelletier	PPC	523	1.0	Retired
Other candidates		407	0.7

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.