Riding profile

St. Boniface--St. Vital

Federal riding — MB · Mixed · winnipeg

The question

St. Boniface--St. Vital: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

St. Boniface--St. Vital, a mixed riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 22% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 5% francophone, 85% anglophone.

Sitting member

Ginette Lavack

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
41.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 63.3%
  • Conservative 22.1%
  • NDP 4.0%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • Green 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereSt. Boniface--St. Vital 63.3%22.1%4.0%1.4%
Provincial averageManitoba 43.9% +19.4 33.4% −11.3 10.5% −6.5 1.4%
National averageCanada 41.9% +21.4 34.8% −12.7 14.2% −10.2 1.0% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
27.3 pts
Turnout
72.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ginette Lavack Elected Liberal 32,599 59.8 Arts Administrator
Shola Agboola Conservative 17,625 32.3 Correctional Officer
Thomas Linner NDP 3,773 6.9 Executive Director Community Health
Gilles Pelletier PPC 523 1.0 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 4.9%
  • Anglophone 84.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 10.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46