Riding profile
St. Boniface--St. Vital
The question
St. Boniface--St. Vital: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 50.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSt. Boniface--St. Vital | 70.8% | 20.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.9% +20.8 | 31.7% −11.1 | 8.5% −6.7 | 1.5% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +22.8 | 32.1% −11.6 | 10.6% −8.8 | 1.0% +0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
St. Boniface--St. Vital, a mixed riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 71% vote share, against 21% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 5% francophone, 85% anglophone.
Sitting member
Ginette Lavack
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ginette Lavack Elected | Liberal | 32,599 | 59.8 | Arts Administrator |
| Shola Agboola | Conservative | 17,625 | 32.3 | Correctional Officer |
| Thomas Linner | NDP | 3,773 | 6.9 | Executive Director Community Health |
| Gilles Pelletier | PPC | 523 | 1.0 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 4.9%
- Anglophone 84.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 10.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46