Riding profile
Winnipeg Centre
The question
Winnipeg Centre: will NDP lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.3
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWinnipeg Centre | 51.2% | 36.9% | 9.4% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.9% +1.3 | 8.5% +28.4 | 31.7% −22.3 | 1.7% +0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +3.2 | 10.6% +26.3 | 32.1% −22.7 | 2.7% −0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Winnipeg Centre, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 37% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Leah Gazan
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leah Gazan Elected | NDP | 13,524 | 39.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Rahul Walia | Liberal | 12,138 | 35.4 | Unemployed |
| Tom Bambrick | Conservative | 7,658 | 22.3 | Military Officer |
| Gary Gervais | Green | 389 | 1.1 | School Proprietor |
| Donald Grant | PPC | 367 | 1.1 | Business Owner |
| Debra Wall | Other | 213 | 0.6 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 78.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 21.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46