Riding profile

Winnipeg Centre

Federal riding — MB · Urban · winnipeg

The question

Winnipeg Centre: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Winnipeg Centre, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 39% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Leah Gazan

Sits with NDP

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
84%
Mean margin (pts)
5.4
P(close race)
52%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 43.8%
  • NDP 39.2%
  • Conservative 11.0%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereWinnipeg Centre 43.8%39.2%11.0%1.9%
Provincial averageManitoba 43.9% −0.1 10.5% +28.7 33.4% −22.4 1.4% +0.4
National averageCanada 41.9% +1.9 14.2% +25.0 34.8% −23.8 2.1% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
4.0 pts
Turnout
53.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Leah Gazan Elected NDP 13,524 39.4 Parliamentarian
Rahul Walia Liberal 12,138 35.4 Unemployed
Tom Bambrick Conservative 7,658 22.3 Military Officer
Gary Gervais Green 389 1.1 School Proprietor
Donald Grant PPC 367 1.1 Business Owner
Debra Wall Other 213 0.6 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 78.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 21.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46