Riding profile

Kildonan--St. Paul

Federal riding — MB · Urban · winnipeg

The question

Kildonan--St. Paul: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Editorial read

Kildonan--St. Paul, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Raquel Dancho

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 48.7%
  • Conservative 36.1%
  • NDP 4.4%
  • PPC 1.3%
  • Green 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereKildonan--St. Paul 48.7%36.1%4.4%1.3%
Provincial averageManitoba 43.9% +4.8 33.4% +2.7 10.5% −6.1 1.4% −0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +6.8 34.8% +1.3 14.2% −9.8 1.0% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.8 pts
Turnout
71.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Raquel Dancho Elected Conservative 26,364 47.5 Parliamentarian
Thomas Naaykens Liberal 24,808 44.7 Canadian Armed Forces Reservist
Emily Clark NDP 3,863 7.0 Director of Account Management
Erik Holmes PPC 486 0.9 Gas Station Attendant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 87.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46