Riding profile
Kildonan--St. Paul
The question
Kildonan--St. Paul: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKildonan--St. Paul | 56.1% | 34.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 49.9% +6.2 | 31.7% +2.8 | 8.5% −6.4 | 1.5% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +8.1 | 32.1% +2.4 | 10.6% −8.5 | 1.0% +0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Kildonan--St. Paul, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Raquel Dancho
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Dancho Elected | Conservative | 26,364 | 47.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Thomas Naaykens | Liberal | 24,808 | 44.7 | Canadian Armed Forces Reservist |
| Emily Clark | NDP | 3,863 | 7.0 | Director of Account Management |
| Erik Holmes | PPC | 486 | 0.9 | Gas Station Attendant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 87.6%
- Non-francophone (other) 12.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46