Riding profile
Elmwood--Transcona
The question
Elmwood--Transcona: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
NDP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 59%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.9
- P(close race)
- 97%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | Liberal | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereElmwood--Transcona | 34.6% | 34.0% | 28.6% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 8.5% +26.1 | 49.9% −15.9 | 31.7% −3.1 | 1.7% |
| National averageCanada | 10.6% +24.0 | 48.0% −14.0 | 32.1% −3.5 | 2.7% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Elmwood--Transcona, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 35% vote share, against 34% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 85% anglophone.
Sitting member
Colin Reynolds
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Reynolds Elected | Conservative | 19,463 | 41.6 | Construction Electrician |
| Leila Dance | NDP | 16,138 | 34.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Ian MacIntyre | Liberal | 10,512 | 22.4 | Retired Teacher |
| Collin Watson | PPC | 396 | 0.8 | Unemployed |
| Nicolas Geddert | Green | 321 | 0.7 | Project Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.7%
- Anglophone 85.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 14.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46