Riding profile
Elmwood--Transcona
The question
Elmwood--Transcona: will Conservative lose this seat to NDP?
Editorial read
Elmwood--Transcona, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 37% vote share, against 30% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 85% anglophone.
Sitting member
Colin Reynolds
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
NDP
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.5
- P(close race)
- 15%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | Conservative | Liberal | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereElmwood--Transcona | 36.9% | 30.2% | 26.6% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 10.5% +26.4 | 33.4% −3.2 | 43.9% −17.3 | 1.4% |
| National averageCanada | 14.2% +22.7 | 34.8% −4.6 | 41.9% −15.3 | 2.1% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Reynolds Elected | Conservative | 19,463 | 41.6 | Construction Electrician |
| Leila Dance | NDP | 16,138 | 34.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Ian MacIntyre | Liberal | 10,512 | 22.4 | Retired Teacher |
| Collin Watson | PPC | 396 | 0.8 | Unemployed |
| Nicolas Geddert | Green | 321 | 0.7 | Project Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.7%
- Anglophone 85.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 14.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46