Riding profile

Winnipeg South

Federal riding — MB · Urban · winnipeg

The question

Winnipeg South: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
48.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 70.3%
  • Conservative 22.1%
  • NDP 1.6%
  • Green 1.5%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereWinnipeg South 70.3%22.1%1.6%1.5%
Provincial averageManitoba 49.9% +20.4 31.7% −9.5 8.5% −6.9 1.7% −0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% +22.3 32.1% −10.0 10.6% −9.0 2.7% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Winnipeg South, an urban riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 70% vote share, against 22% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 2% francophone, 73% anglophone.

Sitting member

Terry Duguid

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
23.8 pts
Turnout
72.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+24.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Terry Duguid Elected Liberal 27,337 59.0 Parliamentarian
Janice Morley-Lecomte Conservative 16,252 35.1 Retired
Joanne Bjornson NDP 2,114 4.6 Sales Manager
Johann Rempel Fehr PPC 385 0.8 Business Owner
Manjit Kaur Green 231 0.5 Child Care Assistant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 1.5%
  • Anglophone 72.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 26.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46