Riding profile
Portage--Lisgar
The question
Portage--Lisgar: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Portage--Lisgar, a mixed riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 58% vote share, against 25% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 85% anglophone.
Sitting member
Branden Leslie
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 32.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePortage--Lisgar | 57.5% | 25.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 33.4% +24.2 | 43.9% −18.4 | 10.5% −7.5 | 1.4% +1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +22.8 | 41.9% −16.4 | 14.2% −11.2 | 1.0% +1.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branden Leslie Elected | Conservative | 31,889 | 69.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Robert Kreis | Liberal | 10,493 | 22.8 | Retired |
| Lisa Tessier | NDP | 2,011 | 4.4 | Teacher |
| Kevin Larson | PPC | 977 | 2.1 | Store Manager |
| Janine G. Gibson | Green | 595 | 1.3 | Organic Agriculture Inspector |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.1%
- Anglophone 84.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 14.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46