Riding profile
Portage--Lisgar
The question
Portage--Lisgar: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePortage--Lisgar | 55.8% | 30.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 31.7% +24.1 | 49.9% −19.2 | 1.5% +1.1 | 1.7% +0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +23.6 | 48.0% −17.3 | 1.0% +1.6 | 2.7% −0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Portage--Lisgar, a mixed riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 46-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 31% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 85% anglophone.
Sitting member
Branden Leslie
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branden Leslie Elected | Conservative | 31,889 | 69.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Robert Kreis | Liberal | 10,493 | 22.8 | Retired |
| Lisa Tessier | NDP | 2,011 | 4.4 | Teacher |
| Kevin Larson | PPC | 977 | 2.1 | Store Manager |
| Janine G. Gibson | Green | 595 | 1.3 | Organic Agriculture Inspector |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.1%
- Anglophone 84.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 14.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46