Riding profile

Riding Mountain

Federal riding — MB · Rural · mb rural

The question

Riding Mountain: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 52.8%
  • Liberal 26.6%
  • Green 2.4%
  • NDP 1.8%
  • PPC 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Green NDP
HereRiding Mountain 52.8%26.6%2.4%1.8%
Provincial averageManitoba 31.7% +21.1 49.9% −23.4 1.7% +0.6 8.5% −6.7
National averageCanada 32.1% +20.6 48.0% −21.4 2.7% −0.4 10.6% −8.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Riding Mountain, a rural riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 45-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 27% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Dan Mazier

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
45.4 pts
Turnout
65.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dan Mazier Elected Conservative 28,409 67.8 Parliamentarian
Terry Hayward Liberal 9,281 22.2 Retired
Andrew Douglas Maxwell NDP 3,072 7.3 Retired
Jim Oliver PPC 564 1.3 Self-Employed
Liz Clayton Green 547 1.3 Educational Assistant

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 92.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46