Riding profile

Yorkton--Melville

Federal riding — SK · Rural · sk rural

The question

Yorkton--Melville: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Yorkton--Melville, a rural riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 63-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 64% vote share, against 16% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Cathay Wagantall

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
48.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 64.3%
  • Liberal 15.9%
  • NDP 2.9%
  • Green 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereYorkton--Melville 64.3%15.9%2.9%2.6%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 50.9% +13.4 30.6% −14.7 4.4% −1.5 1.2% +1.4
National averageCanada 34.8% +29.5 41.9% −26.0 14.2% −11.3 2.1% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
62.7 pts
Turnout
66.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cathay Wagantall Elected Conservative 28,702 77.5 Parliamentarian
Luke Guimond Liberal 5,338 14.4 Political Staffer
Michaela Krakowetz NDP 2,034 5.5 Sales Administrator
Valerie Brooks Green 713 1.9 Teacher
Alec Guggenmos Other 226 0.6 Surveyor, Junior Crew Chief

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 96.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46