Byelection

Yorkton--Melville

Federal riding — SK · Rural · sk rural

The question

Yorkton--Melville: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

By-election — the next vote in this seat

By-election favourite

Conservative

100% · Probability

  • Seat vacant — writ pending
  • Cathay Wagantall is leaving
  • Mean margin (pts) : 33.9

Projected shares

Conservative 64.6%
Liberal 29.4%
Green 3.3%
NDP 1.9%

Why this differs from the map above

Both readings favour Conservative.

The projection below answers a general election: every seat voting at once. This one answers the by-election actually coming. By-election turnout is differential — it costs whichever side is demobilised, which is why the two can name different winners.

Full by-election desk →

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
43.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 62.3%
  • Liberal 18.9%
  • Green 3.0%
  • NDP 1.4%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Green NDP
HereYorkton--Melville 62.3%18.9%3.0%1.4%
Provincial averageSaskatchewan 49.1% +13.2 35.5% −16.6 1.5% +1.4 2.6% −1.2
National averageCanada 32.1% +30.2 48.0% −29.1 2.7% +0.3 10.6% −9.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Yorkton--Melville, a rural riding in Saskatchewan, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 63-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 19% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Cathay Wagantall

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
62.7 pts
Turnout
66.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-19.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Cathay Wagantall Elected Conservative 28,702 77.5 Parliamentarian
Luke Guimond Liberal 5,338 14.4 Political Staffer
Michaela Krakowetz NDP 2,034 5.5 Sales Administrator
Valerie Brooks Green 713 1.9 Teacher
Alec Guggenmos Other 226 0.6 Surveyor, Junior Crew Chief

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 96.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46