Riding profile
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman
The question
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSelkirk--Interlake--Eastman | 45.1% | 34.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageManitoba | 31.7% +13.5 | 49.9% −15.2 | 1.7% +0.6 | 8.5% −6.9 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +13.0 | 48.0% −13.3 | 2.7% −0.4 | 10.6% −9.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman, a rural riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 35% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.
Sitting member
James Bezan
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Bezan Elected | Conservative | 32,788 | 60.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Rhonda Nichol | Liberal | 16,570 | 30.4 | Nurse |
| Josef Estabrooks | NDP | 3,535 | 6.5 | Bookseller |
| Wayne James | Green | 709 | 1.3 | Farmer |
| Byron Gryba | PPC | 473 | 0.9 | Business Manager |
| Chris Riddell | Other | 404 | 0.7 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.4%
- Anglophone 96.0%
- Non-francophone (other) 3.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46