Riding profile

Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman

Federal riding — MB · Rural · mb rural

The question

Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman, a rural riding in Manitoba, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 32% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

James Bezan

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.2%
  • Liberal 31.8%
  • NDP 3.1%
  • Green 2.0%
  • PPC 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereSelkirk--Interlake--Eastman 47.2%31.8%3.1%2.0%
Provincial averageManitoba 33.4% +13.8 43.9% −12.1 10.5% −7.4 1.4% +0.6
National averageCanada 34.8% +12.4 41.9% −10.1 14.2% −11.1 2.1% −0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
29.6 pts
Turnout
70.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
James Bezan Elected Conservative 32,788 60.2 Parliamentarian
Rhonda Nichol Liberal 16,570 30.4 Nurse
Josef Estabrooks NDP 3,535 6.5 Bookseller
Wayne James Green 709 1.3 Farmer
Byron Gryba PPC 473 0.9 Business Manager
Chris Riddell Other 404 0.7 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.4%
  • Anglophone 96.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46