Riding profile

Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc interior

The question

Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
53%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 48.4%
  • Conservative 43.6%
  • Green 1.1%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green PPC
HereOkanagan Lake West--South Kelowna 48.4%43.6%1.1%1.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% +0.8 33.6% +10.0 3.0% −1.8 1.1%
National averageCanada 48.0% +0.4 32.1% +11.5 2.7% −1.6 1.0% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Okanagan Lake West--South Kelowna, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 44% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Dan Albas

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.7 pts
Turnout
72.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dan Albas Elected Conservative 33,219 50.9 Parliamentarian
Juliette Sicotte Liberal 28,827 44.2 Sales
Harpreet Badohal NDP 2,189 3.4 Occupational Hygienist
Louise Lecouffe Green 602 0.9 Farmer
Debbie Robinson PPC 307 0.5 Retired
Gary Suddard Other 90 0.1 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 96.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46