Riding profile

Kelowna

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc interior

The question

Kelowna: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Kelowna, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Stephen Fuhr

Sits with Liberal

Since: 2025-04-28
Parliament: 45^th

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 6.0
P(close race): 34%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Liberal 47.8%
Conservative 41.9%
NDP 2.0%
Green 1.0%
PPC 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
HereKelowna	47.8%	41.9%	2.0%	1.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	41.9% +5.9	35.8% +6.1	10.6% −8.5	2.6% −1.6
National averageCanada	41.9% +5.9	34.8% +7.1	14.2% −12.1	2.1% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by

Liberal

Margin

1.8 pts

Turnout

70.2%

Margin shift vs current projection

+4.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Stephen Fuhr Elected	Liberal	28,702	48.8	Pilot
Tracy Gray	Conservative	27,620	46.9	Parliamentarian
Trevor McAleese	NDP	1,941	3.3	Video Game Developer
Catriona Wright	Green	578	1.0	Volunteer Coordinator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

Francophone 0.3%
Anglophone 93.1%
Non-francophone (other) 6.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 14, 2026
Cycle: fed_46