Riding profile

Kelowna

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc interior

The question

Kelowna: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.0%
  • Conservative 39.6%
  • Green 1.2%
  • PPC 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green PPC
HereKelowna 53.0%39.6%1.2%0.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% +5.3 33.6% +6.0 3.0% −1.8 1.1% −0.4
National averageCanada 48.0% +5.0 32.1% +7.5 2.7% −1.5 1.0% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kelowna, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Stephen Fuhr

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
1.8 pts
Turnout
70.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stephen Fuhr Elected Liberal 28,702 48.8 Pilot
Tracy Gray Conservative 27,620 46.9 Parliamentarian
Trevor McAleese NDP 1,941 3.3 Video Game Developer
Catriona Wright Green 578 1.0 Volunteer Coordinator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 93.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46