Riding profile

Chilliwack--Hope

Federal riding — BC · Mixed · bc interior

The question

Chilliwack--Hope: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.9
P(close race)
8%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.6%
  • Liberal 39.7%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 1.3%
  • NDP 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Green PPC
HereChilliwack--Hope 47.6%39.7%1.9%1.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 33.6% +13.9 47.6% −7.9 3.0% −1.1 1.1% +0.2
National averageCanada 32.1% +15.5 48.0% −8.3 2.7% −0.8 1.0% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Chilliwack--Hope, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mark Strahl

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
19.3 pts
Turnout
67.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mark Strahl Elected Conservative 36,027 54.8 Parliamentarian
Zeeshan Khan Liberal 23,254 35.4 Child Care Worker
Teri Westerby NDP 4,779 7.3 Marketing Professional
Salina Derish Green 1,083 1.6 Business Owner
Jeff Galbraith PPC 482 0.7 Assembly Worker
Christopher Adam Other 129 0.2 Drywall Owner

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 95.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46