Riding profile
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford
The question
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Editorial read
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford, a suburban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Brad Vis
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMission--Matsqui--Abbotsford | 51.1% | 36.0% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 35.8% +15.3 | 41.9% −5.9 | 10.6% −7.9 | 1.0% +0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +16.3 | 41.9% −5.9 | 14.2% −11.5 | 1.0% +0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Vis Elected | Conservative | 33,791 | 56.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Jeff Howe | Liberal | 21,838 | 36.6 | Lawyer |
| Jules Côté | NDP | 2,745 | 4.6 | Farmer |
| John Kidder | Green | 723 | 1.2 | Entrepreneur |
| Kevin Sinclair | PPC | 502 | 0.8 | Truck Driver |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46