Riding profile
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford
The question
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 15%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | Green | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMission--Matsqui--Abbotsford | 49.0% | 41.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 33.6% +15.3 | 47.6% −5.9 | 3.0% −1.6 | 1.1% +0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +16.9 | 48.0% −6.3 | 2.7% −1.3 | 1.0% +0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Mission--Matsqui--Abbotsford, a suburban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 42% for the Liberal Party, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Brad Vis
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Vis Elected | Conservative | 33,791 | 56.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Jeff Howe | Liberal | 21,838 | 36.6 | Lawyer |
| Jules Côté | NDP | 2,745 | 4.6 | Farmer |
| John Kidder | Green | 723 | 1.2 | Entrepreneur |
| Kevin Sinclair | PPC | 502 | 0.8 | Truck Driver |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46