Riding profile

Abbotsford--South Langley

Federal riding — BC · Suburban · vancouver metro

The question

Abbotsford--South Langley: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
3.6
P(close race)
75%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 39.1%
  • Conservative 35.7%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • Green 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative PPC Green
HereAbbotsford--South Langley 39.1%35.7%1.4%1.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 47.6% −8.5 33.6% +2.1 1.1% +0.3 3.0% −1.7
National averageCanada 48.0% −8.9 32.1% +3.6 1.0% +0.4 2.7% −1.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Abbotsford--South Langley, a suburban riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 39% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sukhman Gill

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.1 pts
Turnout
66.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sukhman Gill Elected Conservative 24,116 43.1 Farm and Office Manager
Kevin Gillies Liberal 18,969 33.9 Real Estate Agent
Michael de Jong Independent 9,747 17.4 Provincial Parliamentarian
Dharmasena Yakandawela NDP 2,104 3.8 Barrister and Solicitor
Melissa Snazell Green 577 1.0 Registered Pharmacy Technician
Aeriol Alderking PPC 459 0.8 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 79.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 20.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46